With the help of good investment and domestic demand, the World Bank in its latest ‘India Development Update’ report has said that the Indian economy, which accounts for the bulk of South Asia region, is projected to grow at 6.3 per cent in FY2023-24 and 6.4 per cent in FY2024-25. It added India continues to show resilience against the backdrop of a challenging global environment. On inflation front, it is expected to decrease gradually as food prices normalize and government measures help increase the supply of key commodities.
The World Bank said South Asia is expected to grow 5.8 per cent this year - higher than any other developing country region in the world, but slower than its pre-pandemic pace and not fast enough to meet its development goals. Relative to the spring forecast, growth in 2023 has been upgraded by 0.2 percentage points due to stronger-than-expected data in India.
Although India’s post-pandemic economic rebound is now fading, it said growth is expected to remain stronger than in other large emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). The report said ‘the dampening effect of monetary policy tightening on domestic demand, particularly investment, will likely peak in the coming year. The effects of slowing global demand and rising interest rates will be mitigated by India’s low external debt and the healthy balance sheets of its financial and corporate sectors’.
Growth of merchandise exports is expected to slow as a result of weak foreign demand growth, although this will be offset by robust services exports. The World Bank said, in India, robust output growth in the first half of 2023 was supported by a strong expansion of investment and, on a sectoral level, continued strength of services. Government infrastructure projects have supported momentum in the construction sector, which has grown at year-over-year rates of around 10 per cent in recent quarters.
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